M_5: Study context

➔      The multi-screen description of the STFSTF = System to be forecasted  can be built according to the logic of System Operator, a model of TRIZ representing the way of thinking of talented problem solvers (Altshuller, 1984).

➔    It is convenient to start describing the present system, super-systems and sub-systems from the present perspective. Then, go back to the past for a period of time at the very least equal to the future time span you would like to investigate (preferably double). Once the past and present descriptions have been produced, look at the changes occurred in the system, super-systems and sub-systems and formulate your intuitive vision about what could happen in the time span of the analysis to be performed.

➔    The multi-screen description should equally balance technical, economic, environmental and social information. Try not to focus only on the domain(s) of experience of the core team members.

➔    If several significant transformations occurred in the time span taken into consideration, you can add more “Past” columns instead of only one, so as to visualize the different stage of evolution occurred.

➔    The intuitive projection about the future is not really meant to be the outcome of the forecasting project (in fact, it will be built within stage A A = Act ); the real objective is to recognize relevant tendencies as a means to identify drivers and barriers that characterize the STFSTF = System to be forecasted . These will be further processed within the following steps of the analysis, after passing Gate M Add a Tooltip Text.

➔      The experts’ vision of the future is likely to be biased by their professional experience, but it is also essential to exploit their know-how and intuitive capabilities. In order to minimize those biases, it is recommended to elicit the experts’ opinion on the future problems to address (in the form of conflicts between drivers and barriers), rather than to ask them their prediction about the future of the STF itself.

➔      In the previous step of the M stage, if you have already started organizing the data within the System Operator structure, it is suggested to also double check the correctness of what was done before, with reference to the above instruction to carry out a complete System Operator analysis.

Altshuller, G. (1984) Creativity as an Exact Science, Gordon & Breach, (Structure of talented thought, pp.117-123).

 

Cascini G. (2012) TRIZ-based anticipatory design of future products and processes, Journal of Integrated Design & Process Science, 16(3), pp. 29-63.

 

Kucharavy D. (22 Feb 2010) The hierarchy axis of the system operator. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RYn47y3EfY

 

TETRIS Project  http://www.tetris-project.org/

Example 1. An application example for the System operator

 

The goal of applying the System Operator (Fig1) is the following. It is necessary to describe the System to be forecasted (STFSTF = System to be forecasted ) on the “screens” of the System Operator. Namely: the description of the system itself (1), its super-systems (2), its sub-systems (3). The past of the System (4), its super-systems (5), its sub-systems (6). Based on the analysis of the information obtained and the study of the System’s evolution trends, the description of the future of the System (7), its super-systems (8) and its sub-systems (9) is built.

However, filling the “screens” is not a goal by itself. The descriptions of the changes in the System (STFSTF = System to be forecasted ) (observed while moving from a screen to another) and the structured elicitation of the team knowledge about the System are the essential interest of this task.

The following labels refer to the screen depicted in Fig. 1:

1. The system itself – STF – System to be Forecasted.
2. STFSTF = System to be forecasted ’s nearest super-systems.
3. STFSTF = System to be forecasted ’s nearest sub-systems.
4. The system’s past.
5. STFSTF = System to be forecasted ’s nearest super-systems’ past.
6. STFSTF = System to be forecasted ’s nearest sub-systems’ past.
7. The system’s future.
8. STFSTF = System to be forecasted ’s nearest super-systems’ future.
9. STFSTF = System to be forecasted ’s nearest sub-systems’ future.

It is advised to begin the description with the system itself (1). As an example, let’s take the modern ballpoint pen for writing.

 

First, let’s formulate the main function of our system: “To change the colour of the paper (of the information carrier)”, “to leave traces on the information carrier”.

A remark. The System Operator is a powerful analysis tool. During the analysis of the System, in order to be able to forecast using the screens of the System Operator, one is often required to change his/hers established vision on the object of the analysis. Sometimes one has to return to already filled “screens”, to detail, add or revise something.

 

Second, let’s list the features and resources, which interest us in the future of this system, from various points of view: technological, social, economic, ecological. For example:

а) The system’s production. (technological)

• Cost
• Resources used for the production of the system

 

b) The system’s utilization.  (socio-technological)

• Trace line length (duration of continuous writing)
• Diversity of pen types
• Diversity of information carriers’ types (that, on which the pen leaves traces)

 

c) Process for Recycling. (environmental, technological)

• Impact on the environment
• System utilization time

 

Third, let’s successively describe the “screens” of the System Operator with a brief characteristic of the processes that interest us.

 

1. System for writing: Ballpoint pen, paper.

A remark:the system for writing constitutes the pair “pen + information carrier.” Various materials can serve as a carrier: paper, wood, leather, plastic, metal, glass and others. Why do we need a pair? To catch this concept, let’s hypothetically remove the carrier. Does the pen fulfil its function? No, it doesn’t. An analogous situation arises when viewing the means of transportation “the car”. Can a car move without a road (a surface)? No, it can’t. In this case, we also have a pair: “car + surface (road)”. The surface (road) should be considered in a broad sense: it can be an asphalt pavement, a primer coating, a water surface or others.

In fact, the whole System for writing consists of: Ballpoint pen, paper, atmospheric pressure and man (writer).

 

By which parameters is the System for writing being characterized at the current time?

• Resources used for the production of the system: plastic; ink and artificial colorants; metal (steel) for the ball; metal (brass) for the burner assembly; cellulose and water for the paper; electric energy; manpower.
• Cost: simple ballpoint pens are fairly cheap (you can buy it for ~30-50 cents). Many of them are of disposable use.
• Diversity of types of produced pens: a broad variety in structure, design, colours of the writing element, the number of writing elements of different colours in one body tube, in the cost…
• Line length (continuity of writing): a typical ballpoint pen with a 139-142mm long body tube leaves during its lifetime a trace of around 2’000 meters.
• Types of information carriers: the most common carrier are the various types of writing-paper. There exist special ink types, which are able to leave a trace on such carriers as glass, ceramics, metals and others.
• Impact on the environment: the processing of ballpoint pens doesn’t require special measures (for example, like for chemical current sources – batteries and accumulators). The typical technologies of processing household waste are used. However, large volumes of production and utilization of this System cause significant harm to the environment.
• System utilization time: the full cycle of utilization, starting with collecting household waste and finishing with processing or burning, lasts several days depending on the technologies being used.

 

2. Super-systems of the “System for writing”:

Products of petroleum refining to produce plastic, ink and colourants; metals; vegetative raw material (trees) for cellulose production, water…

 

By which parameters are these super-systems being characterized at the current time?

• Resources used for the production of the super-systems:
• Cost:
• Diversity of types of produced pens:
• Line length:
• Types of information carriers:
• Impact on the environment:
• Super-system utilization time:

 

3. Sub-systems of the “System for writing”: 

body tube (plastic, wooden, paper, metal, ceramic and from other materials); colouring substance, colouring substance distribution unit (micro-ball), tube for storing the colouring substance, protection caps, fibres (micro-structure) of the carrier (paper).

 

By which parameters are these sub-systems being characterized at the current time?

• Resources used for the production of the sub-systems:
• Cost:
• Diversity of types of produced pens:
• Line length:
• Types of information carriers:
• Impact on the environment:
• Sub-system utilization time:

 

A remark. It is necessary to give descriptions of the System operator’s screens that follow.

 

4. The system’s past.

What was the system like 20 years ago? By which parameter values was it characterized at that time? Which changes took place until the present time?

 

5. STFSTF = System to be forecasted ’s nearest super-systems’ past.

What were the nearest super-systems of the System like 20 years ago? By which parameter values were they characterized at that time? Which changes took place until the present time?

 

6. STFSTF = System to be forecasted ’s nearest sub-systems’ past.

What were the nearest sub-systems of the System like 20 years ago? By which parameter values were they characterized at that time? Which changes took place until the present time?

 

7. The system’s future.

What will the System be like in 20 years? By which parameter values will it be characterized at that time? Which changes will take place until that time?

 

8. STFSTF = System to be forecasted ’s nearest super-systems’ future.

What will the nearest super-systems of the System be like in 20 years? By which parameter values will they be characterized at that time? Which changes will take place until that time?

 

9. STFSTF = System to be forecasted ’s nearest sub-systems’ future.

What will the nearest sub-systems of the System be like in 20 years? By which parameter values will they be characterized at that time? Which changes will take place until that time?

Final remark. Filling the cells 7-9 of the System Operator at this stage of the forecasting project should not be interpreted as an anticipation of the forecast to be built in stage A. As highlighted in the Tips section of this step, the core team, possibly with the support of external experts, should analyse the information about the past and the present of the STF (first two columns of the System Operator) and identify the drivers that have characterized the evolution of the STF up to now and the obstacles that prevented the STF to evolve further in that direction. The rightest column of the System Operator (Future) should be filled with the partial conclusions drawn by the core team about the recognized drivers and barriers and their expected impact.